From February 1-7, 2022, the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center conducted a statewide survey of Oregonians’ values and beliefs, including about the 2020 presidential election and political unrest in our country. The question numbers in this document correspond with the survey questionnaire (Q17-18, Q32 and Q34).
Fraudulent Voting
Nearly six in ten (57%) Oregonians believe there was either virtually no fraudulent voting in the 2020 presidential election (36%) or there was very little fraudulent voting, and it had no impact on the results (21%). Nearly three in ten (27%), however, believe there was either significant fraudulent voting, but it had no impact on the results (8%) or there was major fraudulent voting, and it changed the results of the election (19%) (Q17).
- Multnomah County residents are more likely than Oregonians from other parts of the state to believe there was virtually no fraudulent voting in the 2020 presidential election (52% vs. 32%).
- The belief that there was virtually no fraudulent voting in the 2020 presidential election increases with higher education and income levels.
- There is a stark partisan divide on this issue, with 61% of Democrats believing there was virtually no fraudulent voting (compared to only 11% of Republicans), whereas one-half (49%) of Republicans believe there was major fraudulent voting, and it changed the results of the election.
- A notable 21% of Independents are unsure, more than twice as high as the other parties.
January 6th, 2021
A plurality of Oregonians (44%) describe what happened at the U.S. Capitol building on January 6, 2021, as an attempted coup or insurrection. The next most popular description is a riot out of control (26%). Only 8% describe it as a reasonable protest, while 10% say the happenings were carried out by opponents of Donald Trump, including Antifa and government agents (Q18).
- Multnomah County residents are more likely than Oregonians from other parts of the state to describe what happened on January 6 as an attempted coup or insurrection (61% vs. 39%). Oregonians with a college degree or more education are three times more likely to describe what happened on January 6 as an attempted coup or insurrection than those with a high school diploma or less education (70% vs. 24%).
- Another large partisan divide is apparent on this issue, as nearly eight in ten Democrats (76%) describe January 6 as an attempted coup or insurrection, compared to only 10% of Republicans. Whereas a plurality of Republicans (38%) describe the events as a riot out of control, compared to 15% of Democrats.
Violence Against the Government
A slim majority of Oregonians (52%) disagree with the statement “sometimes it is okay to engage in violence against the government,” with 39% strongly disagreeing. Nearly three in ten (26%) agree with the statement and 18% neither agree nor disagree (Q32).
- Disagreement is higher among Oregonians with a college degree or more education when compared to those with a high school diploma or less education (64% vs. 38%).
- Democrats (61%) are more likely to disagree than Republicans (51%) and Independents (44%).
- Women are more likely than men to disagree with this statement (59% vs. 46%).
Prosecuting Protesters
Three-quarters of Oregonians (74%) agree with the statement “It is okay for the government to arrest and prosecute protesters who break the law.” Only 10% disagree and 12% neither agree nor disagree (Q34).
- High percentages of Democrats (78%), Republicans (86%), and Independents (69%) agree with this statement. With one exception, more than 60% of all demographic subgroups agree with this statement. The only exception is younger Oregonians ages 18-29, who still show majority agreement at 54%.
- With one exception, more than 60% of all demographic subgroups agree with this statement. The only exception is younger Oregonians aged 18-29, who still show majority agreement at 54%.
Demographic Trends
Identifying what unites us, understanding what divides us.
Reported below are statistically significant subgroup differences between BIPOC and white Oregonians, urban and rural Oregonians, and age groups. Many of these differences are not major and are presented to inform public education and communications initiatives.
- BIPOC Oregonians are less likely than White Oregonians to describe the events of January 6 as an attempted coup or insurrection (34% vs. 45%) (Q18).
- BIPOC Oregonians and White Oregonians hold equal levels of disagreement with the statement “Sometimes it is okay to engage in violence against the government” (52% and 50% disagree, respectively) (Q32).
- There is a large urban/rural divide on the issue of potential voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, with urbanites 20 points more likely than their rural counterparts to say there was none or very little fraudulent voting (66% vs. 46%) (Q17).
- Urbanites are also significantly more likely than their rural counterparts to describe the events of January 6 as an attempted coup or insurrection (53% vs. 34%) (Q18).
- In an area of alignment, urban and rural Oregonians are roughly equal in their agreement with the statement “It is okay for the government to arrest and prosecute protesters who break the law” (74% and 69%, respectively) (Q34).
- A notable three in ten (29%) younger Oregonians ages 18-29 say they are unsure about the presence of fraudulent voting in the 2020 presidential election (Q17).
- Additionally, a similar 27% of those ages 18-29 are unsure how to describe the events of January 6. For comparison, only 1% of Oregonians ages 75+ responded this way (Q18).
- Younger Oregonians ages 18-44 are significantly more likely than those ages 45+ to agree with the statement “sometimes it is okay to engage in violence against the government” (39-42% vs. 5-19%) (Q32).
- Interestingly, agreement with the statement “it is okay for the government to arrest and prosecute protesters who break the law” increases with age, from 54% among those ages 18-29, to 75% of those ages 45-54, to 90% of those ages 75+ (Q34).
Methodology: The online survey consisted of 1,584 Oregon residents ages 18+ and took approximately 15 minutes to complete. Respondents were contacted by using professionally maintained online panels. In gathering responses, a variety of quality control measures were employed, including questionnaire pre-testing, validation, and real-time monitoring of responses. To ensure a representative sample, demographic quotas were set, and data weighted by area of the state, gender, age, and education.
Statement of Limitations: Based on a 95% confidence interval, this survey’s margin of error, for the full sample, ranges from ±1.5% to ±2.5%. Due to rounding, numbers may not add up to 100%.
This survey uses aggregated data to analyze the opinions of BIPOC residents in comparison to the opinions of residents who identify as white and not another race. BIPOC residents are not a monolith; the grouping represents a wide diversity of races and ethnicities. The findings included in this memo should not be construed such that all people of color are believed to share the same opinions. Disaggregated race data will be provided when sample sizes permit reliability.
This research was completed as a community service by the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center, an independent and non-partisan organization. OVBC is an Oregon charitable nonprofit corporation (https://oregonvbc.org).